Good stuff Shrub. One complication to above is fiscal spend being an election year. What if they cut at first sniff and fiscal spend stays solid and economy does not fall of cliff like usual. Equity will like that originally (low inflation base and accommodative policy). At this stage you have to keep an open mind I guess even though historical odds do not give this high probability.
I like the thought process, but would argue Powell's "recency" analog is the 1970s. He's on record as such. I also personally think he stews over Trump pushing him into rate cuts. IMO it's a high bar for him to cut.
My biggest takeaway from your excellent musings was Recency Bias and 1998 onwards having greater influence on current policy makers. Earlier research sounds wasted - and besides, leaves you more time (assuming Le Shrub has one main stem and is not all bush) to think about the Roman Empire. 😉
Shrub if they go with the political imperative to get Dems re-elected then they’ll need to cut early in the year. That gives them a chance to lipstick on this pig of an economy just in time for elections.
Captured the essence of operable elements to form most likely template for next quarter or so. Lurking in background is the big duration supply evolving over next 6+ months. If long rates rise that makes a messier outlook. Separately, what was your primary strategy when u worked at hedge fund?
Well done, Le Shrub. The only thing worse than a Fed being boxed in, is a Fed being boxed in during an election cycle. And here we are. JP does not like dissents. He may have to hold his nose. That's his Volker\Trichet moment.
This is my favorite part of that writeup. Underrated comment...Excellent job, Shrub.
"To which I will bring back the new expression we learned today: Recency Bias”.
Good stuff, I guess I should keep buying 2's.
For me I think it's Volcker's ghost!
Excellent
Powell does not want to be Arthur burns, but everyone else will care way more about unemployment.
Good stuff Shrub. One complication to above is fiscal spend being an election year. What if they cut at first sniff and fiscal spend stays solid and economy does not fall of cliff like usual. Equity will like that originally (low inflation base and accommodative policy). At this stage you have to keep an open mind I guess even though historical odds do not give this high probability.
I agree that’s why you need to ask what does Yellen want !
I love how that relative over stayed parody
Thank you for sharing shrub meister
What's the scenario where Maverick walks into a bar, goes inverted, pays all the drinks and then shows the birdie to the enemies? haha :)) ...
Cheers, great longer-form research, works for ADHD and chill pill non-ADHD folks :).
Thank you!
I think you liked the title just by association 🤣🙏
soon as I saw it, got big FOMO :)) ... u right for sure! :>
Reminded me of this 2019 Draghi/ECB one:
https://twitter.com/Maverick_Equity/status/1088756505388744705
https://twitter.com/Maverick_Equity/status/1550039002383794176
I like the thought process, but would argue Powell's "recency" analog is the 1970s. He's on record as such. I also personally think he stews over Trump pushing him into rate cuts. IMO it's a high bar for him to cut.
Keep the commentary coming for my perma bull friends,........
Have to kick myself into action Shrub! Great stuff. Ur now on my must read list ....💪🎯
My biggest takeaway from your excellent musings was Recency Bias and 1998 onwards having greater influence on current policy makers. Earlier research sounds wasted - and besides, leaves you more time (assuming Le Shrub has one main stem and is not all bush) to think about the Roman Empire. 😉
Love this. Initial and continuing claims seem tame. Any reason to believe that’s changing?
Shrub if they go with the political imperative to get Dems re-elected then they’ll need to cut early in the year. That gives them a chance to lipstick on this pig of an economy just in time for elections.
Long live Bidenomics
Why/how they have such of an influence on JP and how do they press him?
Captured the essence of operable elements to form most likely template for next quarter or so. Lurking in background is the big duration supply evolving over next 6+ months. If long rates rise that makes a messier outlook. Separately, what was your primary strategy when u worked at hedge fund?
Well done, Le Shrub. The only thing worse than a Fed being boxed in, is a Fed being boxed in during an election cycle. And here we are. JP does not like dissents. He may have to hold his nose. That's his Volker\Trichet moment.