What do you make of the idea out there (Hartnett, Gromen, others) that we might have a counter-intuitive increase in yields at the long end if we end up (or are) in a recession?
Also I've been of the idea (and have expressed it) that german svrgn yields are overly compressed and that they will expand as the reality check comes in. Germany overly benefitted from the stress in other EU countries and one member's loss was another member's gain. With this coalition, that will soon change. Where will the german 10-year be then? Oooff don't get me started.
True, but that's the old Germany. All those years of "fiscal surplus" will be reversed!
The only advice I think I got from this post was to avoid a certain country's culinary offerings. Noted. Won't be stupid.
How dare you, we have the best Knödel
Agree about U.S. rates, much as I'd love to see JP fire off one more middle-finger to Davos before the party's over.
What do you make of the idea out there (Hartnett, Gromen, others) that we might have a counter-intuitive increase in yields at the long end if we end up (or are) in a recession?
It’s very possible
Absolutely. Personally I would never buy duration in a recession. Why? Govts become (even more) insolvent.
Also I've been of the idea (and have expressed it) that german svrgn yields are overly compressed and that they will expand as the reality check comes in. Germany overly benefitted from the stress in other EU countries and one member's loss was another member's gain. With this coalition, that will soon change. Where will the german 10-year be then? Oooff don't get me started.
So... going long TLT again