"Wow, We Are Still Here!"

+ thoughts on the LME's Metals Sanctions

We have survived yet another WW3 scare and I’m proud to announce that I have successfully avoided commenting on the Middle East during the whole weekend.

Traders should be grateful to Iran for launching the attack over the weekend when the Market was closed. Judging from the comments on Twitter, most monkeys would’ve blown up if they were trading the event.

Having published “Diary of Madman” just a day before, my only advice in such situations is: Don’t be an over-emotional “Odte Osbourne”, otherwise you’ll end up a “0-money Osbourne” 😂 (for the readers lacking proper musical education, “Odte Osbourne” is a wordplay to “Ozzy Osbourne” who wrote “Diary of a Madman”)

My Pavlovian reaction on Friday towards the close was to buy short-term calls on the SPX. After all, 99% of the time there is no WW3 and the 1% chance that it happens, you will not really care about your call premium (Incidentally, even when Russia invaded Ukraine, the NDX gapped down 3% and then staged a 6% intra-day rally.)

After the weekend events, I was more interested to see today the reaction in certain Commodity prices. One would expect Precious Metals to sell off as the flight to safety dissipates. One would also expect Oil to sell off as the War Premium is reduced.

At the time of writing Oil is -1%, Gold is flat, Silver is +1.0%, Platinum is down -0.5% and Copper is +1.5%.