Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator

Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator

"What if...there is a Ceasefire in Ukraine?" - Part VI

Possible Trades IF there is a Ceasefire

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Le Shrub
Aug 07, 2025
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Back in February, we wrote “What If… there is Ceasefire in Ukraine? - Part I” when a ceasefire wasn’t even a remote possibility.

Though a ceasefire still seems far away, a headline just hit the tapes that Trump will be meeting Putin in the coming days. I really hope I don’t get to write Part VII, unless it’s for real this time.

Our “BBBB-Barbell Portfolio” already has a dedicated basket that would benefit from a Ukraine Ceasefire as well as from the European Fiscal Stimulus (we call it the “Borsch Basket”!).

Admittedly, the constituents have changed as we progressed from “Part I” to “Part V”, so lets do a quick recap of possible Winners and Losers from a Ceasefire:

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