20 Comments

I've just got to say about "AI", let's keep in focus this is really ChatGTP, generative AI, ie stuff any dweeb can see/grasp bubble. The inner workings have been trodding along for years (Bezos mentions machine learning in his 2012 or 2014 shareholder letter, I don't remember exactly but still 10ish years ago). Ditto medical screenings, industrial processes, on an on. Bottom line is, the "monkeys" (as seems to be the popular term) sees "AI" as this recent boon that will turn economies on their head in a few quarters. The truth is adoption is a decade old and will go on for decades more. The benefits while true have already been seen to an extent and will come much slower than the "monkeys" expect.

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Agree to an extent. The "attention is all you need" paper only came out in 2017. Since then, most AI/ML research has pivoted to the transformer model. Before everyone was doing different shit. Now everyone optimizing and expanding the same core tech/knowledge space. Adoption of LLMs/Transformer models still in its infancy and can do so much more than what came before it. Think the monkeys will be right on this one

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I'll have to disagree. I think the pivot you mention hampers the overall AI effort. IMO everyone is drunk on this mantra that the most/best data (and thus training) wins. It's a fallacy, just as Elon's "human drive with two eyes" mindset. We are far far from understanding humans/consciousness, despite what the left brain, bug data, silicon valley bros might say.

But let's say it does beat my expectations. What is the evidence this is a boon for financial performance? I've been inundated with "AI" features on existing platforms and they've all been free to date.

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Totally agree with the left brain comment. I don't know if we need to understand consciousness to build some form of AI, tho.

Re financial performance: one could argue Google's dominance in search is, at least in part, because of their use of AI. Now that almost anyone can use a world class AI to build something, I am betting that some will find huge financial upside.

On the free AI features - mostly agree. It will become like "the cloud", expected by all consumers/users. And just like the cloud, backend providers will benefit.

Good chat :) thanks

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Just for clarity. How do you define "AI"? It's lost it's meaning, but I think of true AI as human like agency, original thought, etc.

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Agree it's lost its meaning. I think AI now is just really good ML. But terms have melded. What you're describing to me is AGI

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Yes agreed. And loops back to my earlier concern. Myopia about ML alone. Have a good one.

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any meaningful technology has huge implications for society and the stock market. You can look back 100 or 200 years to confirm is has always been the case. Considering the pace of technological advancement is not linear, "AI" could have a very big impact, like railroads or semiconductors.

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Will need some evidence on these claims as well as "meaningful". I'm yet to hear something plausible as to how AI makes a broad impact on profits in the next couple of years, and I don't think the market cares beyond that except in the froth of bubbles (which we are in).

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'AIAIAI' mentions during earnings calls topped with Ctrl + Altman + Delete ... and then UNDO ;)

https://twitter.com/Maverick_Equity/status/1725486516141531620

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Gracias hermano!

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Mafs stands for ?

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Maths

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I think the bit of data your missing with regard to CTAs, is performance against the benchmark, dont underestimate the chase.

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Nice rapid-fire notes.

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Some great bear stuff there!

And warning of upside risk.

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bought puts 0dte - can I stay at your parent's basement now?

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Happy AI Day everybody! Thank you Shrubster!

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So…the Shrub says more gothilocks then.

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Thank you Shruby ;)

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