Great article! Interesting and hilarious at the same time ahahah.
For even higher convexity take a look at the Austria 100y, also better currency exposure imo. This one will really take-off in a lower interest rate scenario
Another EM possibility could be ZAR. US rates starting a re-dribble upwards, South Africa's endemic corruption enfeebles the economy so not much more local rate expectation, precious metals prices have not found higher rates friendly, & FX turns in ZAR often lag the responsiveness of other currencies. Dipping into longs of USDZAR on pullbacks could see some jagged progress over short to medium term.. Sometimes U get short term spikes when EM scare occur..
Welcome to Substack, sir Shrub! Looking forward to reading your long-form thoughts. I'll share this article with my readers tomorrow.
Cheers
thanks buddy, I appreciate it!
Great article! Interesting and hilarious at the same time ahahah.
For even higher convexity take a look at the Austria 100y, also better currency exposure imo. This one will really take-off in a lower interest rate scenario
I had the same thought, but I hardly found it on IBKR. Does anybody know - are there any derivatives available?
Ok now I've read the full article, that's a good call. And the tax argument is certainly interesting. Thank you!!
Emerging market --> Venezuela --> UK?
A shrub with prickles, eh? I'm most offended!!.......... erm.. but yeah.. fair assessment tbh lol
love the complicated model and style of writing - even a simple ape like me can understand the concept!
Loved the envelope doodles as always. Missed the pink paper corner though (right, yesterday was not the Weekend). Thanks as always!
Hilarious & brilliant. Thank you so much and hope everyone has a wonderful day!
Another EM possibility could be ZAR. US rates starting a re-dribble upwards, South Africa's endemic corruption enfeebles the economy so not much more local rate expectation, precious metals prices have not found higher rates friendly, & FX turns in ZAR often lag the responsiveness of other currencies. Dipping into longs of USDZAR on pullbacks could see some jagged progress over short to medium term.. Sometimes U get short term spikes when EM scare occur..
You’re not possibly thinking of returning to the UK are you? CGT planning season has started early.
Great posts.... I have come up with Spanish bonds 2071 (40 Cents) and yielding 1,45%...
Not such a great R/R as the GILT one....
"Maduro regime isn’t exactly a poster child for human rights, the alternatives are way worse"
yeah, saudi theocracy cuts journalists into pieces & kills you for a tweet