Boy, that Escalated Quicky...
It’s all so stupid really.
At least we panicked in a timely manner on Wednesday, when we did the rare move to dramatically change our net exposure, by sizing an Index short and adding June & July Puts. Those puts already more than doubled. We give thanks.
Given that just last week we were buying calls on Rolling Ponzis (made 4-5x returns and gave thanks!), I’d say that was a pretty big shift in character!
Once you realize it’s all nonsense, it starts to pay off …
Anyway. Here we are. On the verge of World War III. Again!
I can offer my completely worthless geopolitical view or I can share some Memes. I obviously choose the latter.
First of all, apparently the US wasn’t involved in the Iran attacks. However, this parody publication suspects that Trump is secretly relieved. We imagined this conversation between Trump and Rubio:
*TRUMP: “Rubio! I can’t stand this TACO thing making the rounds! Do something about it.”
*RUBIO: “Mr President, how about we let Israel attack Iran. Then Iran chickens out, as always. Then we make it viral that TACO actually stands for Tehran Always Chickens Out!”
*TRUMP: “Perfect! Tell Bibi we are ok with the attack. And tell that Shrub to make a meme and send it round Twitter."
*RUBIO: “Yes Master.”
*SHRUB: “You don’t have to ask twice! There you go”
Sorry for the lame joke. At least I had some fun.
The question to then ask is: “What If” Tehran doesn’t Chicken Out?
Then we need to refer to our proprietary ShrubGPT-generated model on the Oil Price under various scenarios. I think the Meme Speaks for itself, but if the situation escalates in the Strait of Hormuz, then Oil at $80-100 is not out of the question. Lets see if Iran likes TACOs!
Quick Meme Analysis on the Market. The other question to ask is:
Why is the Market “only” down 1% on the Iran news?
Let me add another question to that:
Why is the Market not lower after the dumbest trade deal ever between China and the US? After all, this trade deal looks worse than a Cantor SPAC deal towards the end of the cycle…I wonder why that is… oh yea, Lutnick is involved in both!
My answer is quite simple. Most sensible investors have given up. They lost. Their boomer portfolios underperformed… God forbid if they were also short Ponzis then they really got destroyed…
…which means that only Monkeys and shrubs are left to play in the Markets.
Luckily, we have preserved a handful of brain cells to know when it gets too silly.
Our Portfolio is at All Time High. Hedges are on. We have no FOMO because we know that it’s all nonsense anyway. Summer Mode engaged.
Good luck out there!
Disclaimer:
This isn’t financial advice. This is the equivalent of Monty Python for finance but worse: This is the trading blog of a shrub.
Don’t be Stupid. Seriously. How many times do I have to repeat this ….
Man, Le Shrub is half spiderman, with it spider senses, and half a meme evolution of The Simpsons prophecies.
Bang on👍 After the “success” of the China trade negotiations I did think “he’ll probably start a war or bomb someone” to deflect. I was half expecting to Houthi’s to cop it, but he can ride to the rescue after Isreal does the dirty work.