I guess the real question is, will they be able to continue to ramp up activity without pushing inflation higher. inflation is going to be a much bigger problem for Biden than the stock market I think
Exactly. Which is why I don’t understand when Biden released a video a few weeks ago celebrating stock market gains. People who own stocks by and large aren’t the ones that need to be swayed to vote Biden.
actually, I think a bunch of them do as well, but you are correct, large majorities of folks don't own stocks and only feel the pain of prices being 20% or more higher than they were when he was elected.
Yep, infact people still struggling with actual inflation (and not the washed cpi numbers) and high rates while asset prices keep rising might get even more frustrated at how this cake is devided. Very much in tune with "rich getting richer".
After all, maybe we have disinflation, but prices have created a very high base and just to return to historical trends we need deflation and not just disinflation.
She’s got a window. However if she doesn’t use it and issues a bunch of bills it won’t have much of a market impact going forward given term premia is already at a material discount. The other aspect is breakevens are starting to skyrocket. So inflation is coming back not surprisingly with the UE where it is and asset prices as high as they are. My variant view is that this is why absolute asset price levels and financial conditions do matter for the Fed. The other aspect is if she decides to ramp coupons QE at the current pace gets extended possibly till mid 2025. While I’m not betting on it yet I think coupons step up for good in January and that will cap additional upside. Politically we are at the point where inflation coming back in any form is far worse than the markets going down 20-30% from here.
Love the visuals!
As we approach QRA, one metric to consider is Biden’s approval rating. It really sucks, so more bills please...
I guess the real question is, will they be able to continue to ramp up activity without pushing inflation higher. inflation is going to be a much bigger problem for Biden than the stock market I think
Exactly. Which is why I don’t understand when Biden released a video a few weeks ago celebrating stock market gains. People who own stocks by and large aren’t the ones that need to be swayed to vote Biden.
actually, I think a bunch of them do as well, but you are correct, large majorities of folks don't own stocks and only feel the pain of prices being 20% or more higher than they were when he was elected.
Yep, infact people still struggling with actual inflation (and not the washed cpi numbers) and high rates while asset prices keep rising might get even more frustrated at how this cake is devided. Very much in tune with "rich getting richer".
After all, maybe we have disinflation, but prices have created a very high base and just to return to historical trends we need deflation and not just disinflation.
Don't be stupid. I'm seriously you guys
Sick chart shrub!
You should be on TV. Unless you have a face for radio.
Cool as always 🫰
Masterful visual indeed!
Excellent summary.
Last push to ATH and in semis surpised me this week how strong it was.
If can't make up your mind how bearish/bullish to be, just go all in on best rotation you can think of till trend favors the bearish view as well?
Semis lead to the upside and to the downside. It’s a good indicator of how much risk participants are comfortable with
She’s got a window. However if she doesn’t use it and issues a bunch of bills it won’t have much of a market impact going forward given term premia is already at a material discount. The other aspect is breakevens are starting to skyrocket. So inflation is coming back not surprisingly with the UE where it is and asset prices as high as they are. My variant view is that this is why absolute asset price levels and financial conditions do matter for the Fed. The other aspect is if she decides to ramp coupons QE at the current pace gets extended possibly till mid 2025. While I’m not betting on it yet I think coupons step up for good in January and that will cap additional upside. Politically we are at the point where inflation coming back in any form is far worse than the markets going down 20-30% from here.
Also expecting yellen to issue big the 29. She might just make Powell cool things a bit(could comment on qt), if yields spike to much.
The capitulation count continues to grow...
If Tamagochi goal is to avoid Trump 2.....based on polls she still has a TON of work to do, to not risk that.