Friday, March 6th, 2009. The S&P just hit an intra-day low of 666.
Back then, a young shrub and his colleagues were watching the price action glued to their Bloomberg screens. The trading floor felt electric.
Once the S&P hit 666, one trader sighed: “It’s over”.
It was indeed over.
666 marked the low of the GFC crash, following a 60% drop in the S&P!
Though the number “666” has biblical connotations and is known as the “Number of the Beast”, it marked a turning point. It marked the low.
That particular low was met with fear and panic.
It’s easy to call things in hindsight, but back then people feared for their jobs and their security. I don’t know many who bought the March 2009 low.
I do know many who bought in January 2008, in March 2008, in June 2008. Then Lehman happened. By March 2009, most of them got liquidated … that’s how it goes. Only monkeys and shrubs pick bottoms.
Fast forward to today, the S&P is nearing 6,666. We’ve come a long way since 666!
Today, S&P at 6,666 is being met with as much excitement and exuberance as 666 was met with fear and panic back in March 2009!
Lows are met with extreme fear, Tops are met with extreme FOMO!
As there were few buyers at S&P 666, so there are few sellers at S&P 6,666.
That’s just how it goes.
We do have to make one important distinction.
We live in the Golden Age of Grift (aka GAG™️). Currency debasement is a key feature of this Golden Age.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years is that, in such circumstances, it pays to be LONG something.
Long something. Long Brazil. Long Platinum. Long something that makes sense and that won’t lose much if and when sh*t hits the fan.
But I’ve also learned that it pays to be ready for the worst, to be ready for the unexpected. Hence why I like to spend a little bit of premium once in a while to protect the portfolio. We call this a “Blood Sacrifice” since it likely ends up as a sacrifice to the Market Gods.
Because you never know …. the Number of the Shrub may be round the corner!
Open Positions
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