16 Comments
User's avatar
Golden War II's avatar

And then Trump gets elected any way, cuts taxes, increases the deficit and the bull market for US stocks does not even take a break.

Expand full comment
Andy Fately's avatar

I think this is a pretty prescient analysis of the situation. the thing is, other than the fact he is an obnoxious blowhard and a-hole, I'm not sure why they are so afraid at this point. they may not like him personally, but the world was in much better shape when he was in office

Expand full comment
AssidiousSamba's avatar

It's the personal grudges they have towards him to start.

Then rhetoric, lack of respect political class.

The legitimate reason to fear him and fueled even stronger by bias against him is the political violence that has arised from his rhetoric.

Esp. Jan 6th and him still saying election was rigged.

Just see his victory speech from New Hampshire hours ago.

It is not about policies or the state of the world when he was president.

Have a Republican that is pals with them, doesn't have the scandals or followers that did Jan 6th and Charlottesville fine people both sides incidents wouldn't be an issue.

So ignore policies and how Trump did on metrics foreign and domestic when try analyse why they don't like him.

As for Europe don't trust he has their back vs Putin.

If you are looking at the policies you are looking at the wrong place, they don't care about his tax cuts or bombing ISIS or Sulemani to death.

Expand full comment
Sugar Daddy's avatar

the world of tamagotchis - love shrubstack!

Expand full comment
Marek Baczyński's avatar

With these memes it's only a matter of time you put a paywall here. Too good

Expand full comment
Shabs's avatar

Thank you for posting quality handmade images and not AI art

Expand full comment
@drsxr's avatar

Quite reasonable. Found it interesting that the new Chinese CB head is western-trained so expect western style interventions.

Now the question is how effective will be Chinese equity market stimulus & what kind of mean reversion will we get?

Expand full comment
shroom chef's avatar

love the way you write

funny and insightful

keep it up shrub

Expand full comment
Permabroke's avatar

The TMNT memes got me 🤣

Expand full comment
Matt D's avatar

At some point soon inflation is going to come back in the US (already showing) that is a big killer for this thesis everywhere especially during an election. I think the risk is materially higher now that inflation will be an election problem

Expand full comment
Alex Radu's avatar

BOE is next?

Expand full comment
AYNI at Finom Group's avatar

TLDR: China is kinda fucked

Expand full comment
Nir's avatar

Biden's rating is so low that ot doesn't look like they care anymore.

Expand full comment
Snackbit's avatar

Have been thinking too about the possibility of the regime conspiring to do everything they can to prevent reelection of trump, but i'm not too sure of it. Major regime aligned news outlets like bloomberg have been floating the idea of a trump presidency as being a "reasonable" option. They see that it is problably inevitable that trump will beat biden, so why juice the markets for a battle that is already lost? On the other hand, i see no other explanation for what powell and yellen are doing.

Expand full comment
mendo's avatar

I agree with you easpecially given that first mandate was mostly rhetoric , much less implementation of promises, besides that he is coming from the richest class, so I do not see why would be worried so much of his second term...

I also do not know what is the reasin, but if I would have to guess I would say they are afraid of banking, treasury or some other systemic collapse or at least seriozs problem...

Expand full comment
Christoph's avatar

If the CCP tamagotchi starts to crave commodities though that could result in a bit of pleb-flation?

Expand full comment