22 Comments
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Daniel Löfgren's avatar

Love this format (SSSS), 🙏

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Atatulpha's avatar

I would add Baba results next week. I think it could be make or break? Why? China stimulus only works, if insufficient demand is the problem. (I suspect not), but Baba is too cheap and overbeaten and underowned to ignore. If the results next week greatly dissapoint, than the overall China stimulus upbeat story may took a turn to the downside.

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Rabeuz M's avatar

Thank you, Shrub!!!!

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Rob Rob's avatar

Shrub, what’s your take on position sizing?

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Le Shrub's avatar

“Don’t be stupid” is the motto! Don’t blow up with stupid sizes. 10-15pc max for a position size that’s uber high conviction . I rarely go beyond 10pc nowdays

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hex0ctb1n's avatar

I like the vices theme. Let’s get some tobacco and casinos up in here

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AssidiousSamba's avatar

I like alcohol. Had a quick trade on cannabis and quit already because I don't like the stuff LOL.

Why you like casinos? I think they are really dangerous to own here.

Tobacco, alcohol and coal are my dirty stocks.

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hex0ctb1n's avatar

I’m being slightly facetious, BUT if I could make a case for casinos, it’d be 1) the propensity for financial nihilism nowadays 2) consumers keep spending, whether or not they should 3) Chinese New Year 4) stocks I think should be lower, like RCL, not being lower and 5) stocks like WYNN and LVS look like they may have bottomed in 2022. But idk that I’d think any should be long term holds

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AssidiousSamba's avatar

Wynn and LVS especially should benefit from a Macau rebound.

But US think we saw peak conditions. And macro fears are as low as can be right now.

The activity and profitability in Vegas slowing and these stocks get murdered in downtrends.

Jury is still out on China.

I think gambling market is a bit crowded.

So many casinos now, places to bet sports, or just punt on crypto or options.

At some point it's gonna turn into the auto industry. Too much capacity for demand, and use too much money to attract the customers.

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hex0ctb1n's avatar

Your view makes a lot of sense to me on a medium or longer term horizon!

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Jon's avatar

🙏🙏🙏

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AYNI at Finom Group's avatar

🙏🏼🙏🏼

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Steve Shaw's avatar

Thx . Agree on the NDX . Could you suggest a strike and expiry please . Would you use qqq puts alternatively.

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Le Shrub's avatar

In the article I mentioned 17k Feb strike. Complete punt so sized as such

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Matt D's avatar

Other element that scares me is the retail element (though that’s part of the concern gets reflected in the NAV discount)

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Matt D's avatar

Shrub Any thoughts on uranium physical here or no? I still like it as a longer cycle play where it isn’t as sensitive to the economic cycle. Doesn’t mean you won’t see a larger NAV discount with stress

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Kapil Goyal's avatar

Shrub - it seems that these were short term pov tickers.

They didn't do well in 2024

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Zack Morris's avatar

Why do you say GEO is a Trump beneficiary? What else do you have on your radar as a Trump beneficiary?

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mendo's avatar

What do you mean by?

1. Maybe the trade is as stupidly simple as staying long until 4/20 ? KISS :/

2. Demark 13

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Tokyo's avatar

Demark 13: google it or see Tommy Thornton on X. He’s a good Demark indicator guy.

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Tokyo's avatar

KISS: keep it simple, stupid.

The code for weed is 420. So, keep the trade on til 4/20 (April 20th).

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Steve Shaw's avatar

Sorry missed that . I’m a little slow! So 2.5% OTM . They and QQQ puts are cheapish.

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