genuine question by the way, I didn’t have any data at hand when I wrote the comment. Now I looked it up and saw that the USD depreciated 10% against the Deutschmark. It performed very well against Sterling, but that is an entirely different story 😉
I'm gonna repost what I PM'ed you but after reading your shrubstack make one or two more points.
First, Jerome and Yellen have the relationship, not The Orange one or his successor with Jerome. So when push comes to shove, Jerome falls in line with Janet because 'central bankers club' Powell just doesn't want to become Burns. If he's removed by the orange one in the next admin, he'd probably be OK with it because now he can hedge his mostly bonds portfolio with gold and bund futures.
Janet wants to issue but needs to do so at lower rates and hopefully a normalized yield curve with FF close to 2.0-2.5% and the 10 between 3-4.25% . She's going to keep us under the 120% debt to GDP ratio by 1) goosing GDP (AI AI AI AI ), 2) revenue streams (tax and tariffs) and 3) issuing more debt towards the front end of the curve when rates drop. All sensible things.
Therefore I propose:
1. The taxes must flow (to achieve progressive social goals via redistribution)
2. the rates must be low (to prevent rising yields)
3. The liquidity must go (to prevent inflation)
And if you're not in on the new political economy you're pretty much outta luck.
Dear Shrub, thank you for your excellent Shurbstacks !! Wish you a Merry Christmas !!
Send our love to Mrs Shrub and Shrub jnr
Merry Christmas, Shrub! Thank you for your excellent work and memes 🙏
Thank you for the analogue! Merry Xmas
Thank you from the bottom of my heart for making predictions so much fun, and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!🥰🎄🥰🥦🥰🎄🥰
Does your calculus change if it becomes clear by say July 1st that you know who won’t be the gop candidate?
He will be though. Over 90% chance. But would def change from Powell POV and the feelings we speculate about and to a lesser extent Yellen.
and how did the USD perform in 1976?
genuine question by the way, I didn’t have any data at hand when I wrote the comment. Now I looked it up and saw that the USD depreciated 10% against the Deutschmark. It performed very well against Sterling, but that is an entirely different story 😉
Thats hilarious mate! Happy Christmas to you, Mrs Shrub and the cuttings! 🐿️😘
Thank you and that was a masterpiece, Mr. Shrub. Take care and enjoy the break!
Brilliant just brilliant.
Love your Shrubstack! Have a great Christmas mister Shrub!
I am saving this post(email) and will be reading it regularly to remind me to stay the course. Merry Christmas, Shrub!
I'm gonna repost what I PM'ed you but after reading your shrubstack make one or two more points.
First, Jerome and Yellen have the relationship, not The Orange one or his successor with Jerome. So when push comes to shove, Jerome falls in line with Janet because 'central bankers club' Powell just doesn't want to become Burns. If he's removed by the orange one in the next admin, he'd probably be OK with it because now he can hedge his mostly bonds portfolio with gold and bund futures.
Janet wants to issue but needs to do so at lower rates and hopefully a normalized yield curve with FF close to 2.0-2.5% and the 10 between 3-4.25% . She's going to keep us under the 120% debt to GDP ratio by 1) goosing GDP (AI AI AI AI ), 2) revenue streams (tax and tariffs) and 3) issuing more debt towards the front end of the curve when rates drop. All sensible things.
Therefore I propose:
1. The taxes must flow (to achieve progressive social goals via redistribution)
2. the rates must be low (to prevent rising yields)
3. The liquidity must go (to prevent inflation)
And if you're not in on the new political economy you're pretty much outta luck.
Jerome Powell & Co. against Trump is our opinion, most of the FOMC are DOVE's
Add china to the list of trump haters.....expect cheap imports and sovereign bond buying....
Love this. Yours is the only substack that leaves me entertained and feeling a bit smarter each time. Happy hols !