One Last Yolo - Addendum
Plus: How to Survive in 2025
I have some bad news and some good news.
The bad news is that JPow has decided to be the Grinch and spoil the Xmas Rally.
The Fed projections for 2025 went from 100bps of rate cuts back in September, to now 50bps.
JPow also said we are entering “a new phase and we’re going to be cautious about further cuts” and that “We’re significantly closer to Neutral…From this point forward, it's appropriate to move cautiously and look for further progress on inflation.”
Those of us old enough to have traded back in October 2018, would recall that we had a few rough months and a 20% peak-to-trough correction after JPOW said that the Fed was a “long way from Neutral”.
Now for some good news. Back in Dec 2018 / Jan 2019, Jerome pivoted (again) and the market retraced the losses and then some.
In fact, Powell loves to Pivot so much, we should start calling him “Don Pivote”.
The one asset class that has smelled that the Fed is full of hot air is none other than Fartcoin, up +20% on the day and now at $1bn market cap. It smells something and it ain’t pretty…
I’m half-joking but … “once you realize it’s all nonsense, it starts to make sense”.