It Takes Two to TACO

Probability of a CRASH goes up to 44.44% (yes, this is clickbait)

I have just increased my probability of a Crash from 30% to 44.44%.

The starting point of a 30% probability of a Crash has been laid out in “Asymmetric Warfare”, where we have explained that the risk-reward of the current market setup is terrible.

This risk remains firmly in place because with all the talk of a Trump TACO, people need to realize that “It takes TWO to TACO!” (h/t GK)

There are also other considerations: Is the TACO halal? Is the TACO kosher? Is it all nonsense?

I can confirm the latter, hence why it makes sense.

In any case, I need to raise the alarm because the probability of a Crash is rapidly rising for the following reasons (Yes, this is clickbait):