The event has been well expected by Chinese investors. No significant achievement or agreement is expected though. Last year rally was mainly due the end of covid lockdown in China. Anyway, I still think this event driven bet could work.
Love this play, you also are getting the potential under-appreciated catalyst of the third plenum which is - imo - now or never for broad based stimmy announcement
If you want the macro-boi stuff shrub didn’t talk about 😂:
More vulnerable than Chinese equity market is Hang Seng. As US rates restart upward dribble Hong Kong Monetary Authority has to match these (currency pegged to USD). It is near the upper peg band so not much more potential, but China has to fork up substantially to HKMA for USD to keep peg from breaking (a little unlike with its own currency). So HKMA can not avoid rate increases. unless China wants to give really massive support for no productive purpose. Majority of Hang Seng listings in property related stocks (a group of which China has had enough). While index already down, any pop on optimism likely to then encounter the rates, regardless of mainland economy. Local speculators tend to be short term impulsive, to accentuate moves.
Lesssss gooo
Thank you, I like KWEB calls asymmetry ... I just go a bit longer than year-end ;). Cheers!
you smarter thats why!
Nahhh, just a bit more patient this time haha, you the legend, trust the Shrub ;). Cheers!
The event has been well expected by Chinese investors. No significant achievement or agreement is expected though. Last year rally was mainly due the end of covid lockdown in China. Anyway, I still think this event driven bet could work.
Love this play, you also are getting the potential under-appreciated catalyst of the third plenum which is - imo - now or never for broad based stimmy announcement
If you want the macro-boi stuff shrub didn’t talk about 😂:
https://open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/china-at-the-crossroads?r=1fk9tp&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
i love your macroboi stuff haha
Given uncertainty on upside but that market is slightly depressed, maybe out of money put spread would have higher potential for payoff
Bromanxe since both wants a green Christmas
Alibaba earning next week
More vulnerable than Chinese equity market is Hang Seng. As US rates restart upward dribble Hong Kong Monetary Authority has to match these (currency pegged to USD). It is near the upper peg band so not much more potential, but China has to fork up substantially to HKMA for USD to keep peg from breaking (a little unlike with its own currency). So HKMA can not avoid rate increases. unless China wants to give really massive support for no productive purpose. Majority of Hang Seng listings in property related stocks (a group of which China has had enough). While index already down, any pop on optimism likely to then encounter the rates, regardless of mainland economy. Local speculators tend to be short term impulsive, to accentuate moves.
Ali Baba chart is testing double bottom
REVENUE $132 BILLION
NET PROFIT $23 BILLION
EPS $9.08
Uh! The CCP will ignore this, for XI is at the helm. He would better eat pork chops in peace.
I got to say there’s actually a word for alpha in Mandarin: 阿尔法。 anyway, always enjoy your sense of humor and great writing here and on X.
I like this