Election Volatility

Plus: H2 2024 Preview

This post is about Volatility during U.S. Election Years, focusing on the July-November period.

As we enter the second half of 2024, the S&P is at its highs, and the VIX is at its lows. Therefore, it’s a good time to examine historical precedents, which will hopefully assist us in forming an outlook for the remainder of 2024.

This analysis was prompted by the chart below, which illustrates that in the second half of an election year, Stock Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) picks up at the start of Summer and gradually builds up to a crescendo until Election Day. After the event concludes, Volatility subsides (source: BofA, h/t ZeeContrarian).