Downside is very limited given valuation and highly accretive buybacks. Even schiess management can't prevent this from printing cash. My 2nd largest position and I still wonder if I own enough.
UAN (CVR Partners) is potentially the best play in the fert space - market cap of around $700m. Koch Bros just paid $3.6bn + for a US plant being sold by Dutch based OCI. That plant has roughly the same capacity as UAN's two plants. OCI apparently had multiple bidders in the process. Some complications with UAN (its an MLP, issuing K1's and Ichan is the controlling GP). It will sell at some stage and likely for 3-4x current value. In meantime, while waiting it should distro $15 per unit this year (current unit price is $66 !).
Just to be clear, your view is there is a higher chance it would realize it’s potential AFTER some distribution taking advantage of the index inclusion event on 23rd Jan. Is this correct?
#CoalTwitter is VERY happy with your latest shrubstack. My timeline is basically retweets of it. lol.
“It isn’t exactly the S&P 500 but it will do.” 🤣
Downside is very limited given valuation and highly accretive buybacks. Even schiess management can't prevent this from printing cash. My 2nd largest position and I still wonder if I own enough.
Great to see comments like this. With it not moving starting to think I was going crazy
BIG move in BTU today!
Love getting confirmation on a name I’ve been buying all week from shrub. Would also like your take on $MOS as a soybean/commodities/farming play.
i need to revisit ferts! Tough trade generally with low nat gas prices, but a trade is a trade!
hmmm....
https://x.com/Ben__Rickert/status/1748295446475542883?s=20
I’ve been watching the fertilizer space get pummelled for so long now just waiting for signs of life. NTR and MOS look like death.
MOS and others at critical levels, if they hold, could see a nice bounce with seasonality kicking in Feb.
UAN (CVR Partners) is potentially the best play in the fert space - market cap of around $700m. Koch Bros just paid $3.6bn + for a US plant being sold by Dutch based OCI. That plant has roughly the same capacity as UAN's two plants. OCI apparently had multiple bidders in the process. Some complications with UAN (its an MLP, issuing K1's and Ichan is the controlling GP). It will sell at some stage and likely for 3-4x current value. In meantime, while waiting it should distro $15 per unit this year (current unit price is $66 !).
Whoa those past dividend payments were no joke. I'll definitely be adding this to my watchlist. I forgot about UAN.
Just to be clear, your view is there is a higher chance it would realize it’s potential AFTER some distribution taking advantage of the index inclusion event on 23rd Jan. Is this correct?
yea once elliott gets out, it becomes easier to go up
Great add to portfolio!
Been buying since March, LFG already!
Shrub is the burning bush of financial markets. I will follow your commandments
Been buying the last 2 weeks. My largest position.