AIBS™️Part VI - KISS!

Is the AI Trade over?

AIBS™️ = “Artificial Intelligence-Backed Securities” (also a clever pun for “AI - BS”)

In the previous episode of the “AIBS™️” series we made a controversial statement that, “at this point, it’s a question of “WHEN” the AI Bubble will burst, rather than “IF”.

We assigned most of the blame to Masaponzi Son for not giving thanks when he booked his profits on Nvidia and instead doubled up in cash-burning OpenAI.

On Thursday, Nvidia reported strong results and Jensen gave his best to convince there is no AI Bubble. Yet what we got instead was “news failure” with the Nasdaq suffering an intraday drop of 5%, which caught everyone off-guard, including yours truly, who was more focused on having a relaxing Thanksgiving week.

So what happened?

The real culprit for the sell-off was actually not Nvidia, but Google:

• Google released Gemini 3.0 and it’s great! Not only did it outperform ChatGPT in the funny metrics that AI geeks look at, but it also received glowing reviews from consumers, including shrubscribers who compared the two.

• More importantly, Google was trained entirely on its own TPUs (Tensor Processing Units), bypassing Nvidia’s GPUs!

• To put it simply, the World’s best AI model right now is NOT using Nvidia chips…

• …which makes this a “Deepseek 2.0” moment for the AI Trade, but without Jevons Paradox to save us.

Google’s vertical integration (hardware + data + models) not only challenges NVIDIA’s AI chip dominance, it also puts OpenAI in the spotlight, since Google is self-funding vs OpenAI relies on its Chaebol structure for cash.

No wonder that in an internal memo, Altman told his employees: “I expect the vibes out there to be rough for a bit.”

Readers would recall that during the fateful BG2 podcast (which marked the “AI Meme Top”), Altman told Brad Gerstner: “If you want to sell your shares [in OpenAI], I’ll find you a buyer”. If I were Brad, I’d pick up the phone now and take up Sam’s offer!

KISS!

In any case, I want to use this opportunity and remind everyone of one the driving principles here at Shrubstack:

• KISS = Keep It Simple Shrub

Unfortunately, OpenAI and a bunch of other AI promoters have contaminated this principle into their own version:

• KISS = Keep It Scammy Scam

To drive the point home, I’ve asked ShrubGPT to do a simple comparison of the “Nvidia / OpenAI Ecosystem” vs the “Google Ecosystem”:

People really like to over-complicate things, but simplicity is what we are aiming for. Are you surprised that while Masaponzi doubled up in OpenAI, Buffett bought Google instead?

As Buffett says in his Farewell letter: “Get the right heroes and copy them.” 🌳🙏

Is the AI Trade Over?