“If OpenAI or Anthropic faulter, what happens to their giant backlog with the Hyperscalers?”

Unfortunately, we have yet to receive a satisfactory answer.

The AI Bears were delighted with the sheer thought of the AI Trade blowing up, whereas the most common answer from the AI Bulls was:

“Demand for compute is so high, that if OpenAI walks away, then Microsoft will give it to someone else or keep it for their own use”.

I mean, guys …. If I gave this answer to my professor he would’ve flunked me!

It’s $300bn we are talking about, and the best answer I got was that we can just shift $300bn here and there as if this is candy we are passing round?!

This is really wishy-washy thinking, as if the whole “AI Grand Plan” was “vibe-coded” by ChatGPT version 1.0 …. oh crap, maybe it was, and we just bet the future of humanity on a dumber version of Scam Altman.

This person also didn’t ask the right question: Warren Buffett.

The Nasdaq is down 8% since Buffett invested $10bn in Google, and nothing would be more ironic than if “the AI Top” was marked by the greatest value investor of our generation getting FOMO for the AI Trade at the tender age of 100 (“The Buffett Meme Top™️”).

Had Buffett asked our question before he invested in Google, would he still go ahead?

But seriously. Why can’t someone answer this question for me?

As we said previously, the implications for Passive Investors are also great, given that nearly half the S&P is composed by AI-related companies.

The AI Trade just hit “Pause”…and I’m not the one saying it

Guess which other person didn’t ask the right questions before incinerating billions?

Our old favorite, Labubu Larry!

Since “Labubu Larry” was conceived in September 2025, Oracle’s stock is down 65% …

Anyone remember when Wall Street got super-duper-excited about Oracle’s RPOs (Remaining Performance Obligations) hitting $500bn and pushed the stock above $320, while we exposed the ridiculousness of it all with a single meme?

Well, you can have it now 65% cheaper for $115 …

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Here’s the performance so far:

• Meme Bottoms: BABA +25% higher, Crude +22% higher

• Meme Tops: Nasdaq -7% lower, SOXX -13% lower

Not too shabby for Parody!
But please don’t try this at home. Parody is best left to the Professionals.

Some things are easy to spot from a mile. For example, in our latest Portfolio Review we noted that: “This Market loves to punish hubris, so the group of people that exhibits the most confidence seems to be the one that gets annihilated next. You can guess which one that is …”

The AI Bulls even had their own tagline:

“If you don’t use more tokens, you’ll never escape the permanent underclass” …

… which is the new version of “HAVE FUN STAYING POOR!” that the crypto monkeys were throwing at us years back…

Someone should ask the millions of South Korean retail investors that got margin-called if they managed “to escape the Permanent Underclass”…

…but it makes me sad that so many people got hurt, all while the S&P is less than 2% off its All-Time-Highs…

…you can blame FOMO, Leverage and forgetting to “Give Thanks”:

When Will Semis Bottom?

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You know it’s getting serious because the hostilities extended beyond the weekend and into trading hours, which is extremely rude and against warfare etiquette during the Golden Age of Grift ™️.

This is all FIFA’s fault, because they should’ve tried harder to keep the USA and Iran football teams in the World Cup for a bit longer… why not, a “USA vs Iran” final would’ve been so “meme”!

In any case, we should put our “thinking hats” on (not that “thinking” makes any money) and try and figure out the “funniest outcome” from this point on:

Funniest Outcome Number 1: Hormuz actually Matters. The Barrel-Counters were right all along. Crude rockets beyond $100. Fertilizers and LNG follow.

Funniest Outcome Number 2: Trump proposed a 20% Toll on Hormuz. Iran had proposed a 1% Toll. Such a bargain!!! Therefore, the funniest outcome would be if ships end up passing through the Iran side, happy to pay the “Aya-Toll” of 1% so that they benefit from the 95% discount compared to the “Trump-Toll”!

I know what we suggest is ridiculous, but you have to admit it’s absolutely hilarious if it happens … which means there is a non-zero probability that it does!

Good luck out there!

🤭🌳🙏

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Disclaimer:

This isn’t financial advice. This is Parody. This is the equivalent of Monty Python and Spaceballs for finance, but worse: This is the trading blog of a shrub. For all you know, I could be a 15-year old paper-trading out of my parents’ basement. Don’t be Stupid. Seriously. How many times do I have to repeat this.

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Whether it’s a “job” or not, identifying “a good meme to trade and a contra to fade” can be highly enjoyable but also profitable enough to put food on the table and fertilizer in the ground 🤭

Case in point, the latest two examples of “Meme Bottoms” :

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If there’s one mistake I did that I consider a Cardinal Sin is that for a brief moment in time I actually believed that it’s NOT all nonsense.

For a brief moment in time I believed that closing the Hormuz Strait could lead to an Energy Crisis (as if disrupting 20% of the World’s Crude supply would impact the Energy Market!), that Agricultural Commodities could rally due to fertilizer shortages (since when do crops need fertilizers anyway?!), that Trump was serious about “ending a Civilization” (what is this, the board game of “Risk”?), that things were getting “serious”…

…and suddenly nothing made sense anymore.

Luckily we got our head straight pretty quickly and went back to realizing it’s all nonsense … and suddenly it all made sense again!

The money we lost buying “useless" things like agricultural commodities (who needs to eat anyway!), we made back and then some by buying Space Ponzis into the SpaceX IPO, booking the gains and giving thanks, while later pivoting to Robotics as “The Next Rolling Ponzi” …

…though we were especially happy with the gains in Biotech and uniQure, because it was a major win for the Huntington’s Disease community…

… which shows that within all this “nonsense”, we can find “meaning” too!

It’s worth clarifying that it doesn’t mean to say that if it’s “nonsense”, it can’t go “down”. It absolutely can. For example we sold Redwire (aka the “Space Ponzi”) for a multi-bagger gain and it’s now 50% lower from where we sold.

It was nonsense on the way up, and it was nonsense on the way down!

Here’s a meme for the kids at the back:

All we are saying is that the Market is a Game but with real money involved.

We love to play this Game…

…and it makes it a lot easier once you realize it’s all nonsense.

We give thanks🙏

Current Setup & Q3 Outlook

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…but we couldn’t wait long to release Part III, since we love a good Trilogy!

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Alan Greenspan died this week at 100 years old.

The title of this article has nothing to do with my opinion of Greenspan. Quite the opposite. I was fortunate to have met him on several occasions. He was a deep thinker, an intellectual and a gentleman. May he Rest In Peace.

My favorite story of Greenspan is that he was close friends with Ayn Rand, famed author of Atlas Shrugged, and a part of her inner circle, aptly called the "Collective," who would gather regularly to discuss politics, world events and ideas. She was even present when Greenspan was swore in as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

I always found it fascinating that someone so close to Ayn Rand, who was a strong proponent of laissez-faire capitalism, ended up being the Central Banker that became known for the “Greenspan Put”.

Since the “Greenspan Put”, we’ve had the Bernanke Put, the Yellen Put, the Powell Put and now … a hawkish Warsh?!!!

Give me a break.

Which brings us to the Devil…

Since 1971, when Nixon ended the dollar-to-gold convertibility, the US Dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power.

I can picture an idealistic Greenspan starting as Fed Chair in August 1987, thinking he’ll make Ayn Rand proud …

… and then the October 1987 Crash happened…

… where Greenspan faced a tough dilemma:

• Embrace Ayn Rand’s teachings of laissez-faire and risk a 1929 downturn?

• Or intervene and save the system, even if that leads to currency debasement and future bubbles?

Greenspan stepped in to provide liquidity to save the system. Per his statement on October 20th, 1987:

• "The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system"

Greenspan’s response to Black Monday ushered in “a new era of investor confidence in the central bank's ability to calm severe market downturns. Unlike many prior financial crises, the sharp losses stemming from Black Monday were not followed by an economic recession or a banking crisis”. (source)

For all the fanfare around Black Monday, the Market recovered relatively quickly and, in two trading sessions, the Dow recovered more than half its losses. Within two years, the Markets was at new highs.

It only took a few months in the job for Greenspan to capitulate against Ayn Rand’s teachings, in order to save the system…

… and as much as some people like to blame Greenspan for it, the reality is that it wasn’t Greenspan’s fault, or Yellen’s fault, or Powell’s fault because …

… well, our whole system is a giant Ponzi…

… and that’s absolutely fine as long as we accept it and trade it as such.

The Devil’s greatest trick is to convince us that he doesn’t exist.

The Fed’s greatest trick is to convince us that paper money is “sound” money!

Our system is designed to protect the Government from ever defaulting.

What this means is that we sacrifice the “purchasing power” of the Currency, in order to protect the “credit worthiness” of Treasuries.

Here’s a meme for the kids at the back:

…which brings us to today:

We have a new Fed Chair, Kevin “Home Alone” Warsh, and the Wall Street monkeys have already fallen in the trap that the Devil laid out for them.

They believe that Kevin is “hawkish”, that Kevin will “bring inflation down to 2%” and BofA even thinks that Kevin “will raise rates 3 times in 2026” …

Give me a break!

Here we had Greenspan, a disciple of Ayn Rand, flip within a few months when the system needed saving …

… and you think that “Home Alone” Kevin will stand up against this Giant Ponzi and let it collapse when the going gets hard?!!!

Not a chance…

…but sure, go ahead and tell me “the Debasement trade is over”…

… that’s what the Devil would have you think!

Good luck out there!

🌳🙏

Disclaimer:

This isn’t financial advice. This is Parody. This is the equivalent of Monty Python and Spaceballs for finance, but worse: This is the trading blog of a shrub. For all you know, I could be a 15-year old paper-trading out of my parents’ basement. Don’t be Stupid. Seriously. How many times do I have to repeat this.

…this is early days, so we continue to comb the markets for ideas around this theme, even though the odds are stacked against us:

Luckily, the Market Gods have provided us with a new trade setup that perfectly fits our investment style!

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The FDA’s reversal on uniQure’s (ticker: QURE) Huntington’s Disease drug shows that the new FDA is pragmatic and embraces common sense (The FDA just agreed that the 3-year data from uniQure’s Phase I/II study would be acceptable as the primary basis of a Biologics License Application (BLA) for the accelerated approval of AMT-130).

We enjoyed a >10x-bagger in QURE calls in September 2025, and now we are sitting on a >2x-bagger in QURE equity (as well as healthy gains in CLPT).

We give thanks more importantly for the Huntington’s Disease community. This is what counts.

We wrote about the setup in QURE in "How to make $1 billion", in what may be the most clickbait-y title ever.

We refrain from investing in Biotech, apart from platform plays like Clearpoint (ticker: CLPT), but we made an exception in QURE, precisely because we were familiar with CLPT as the delivery mechanism.

This is the point in time where we hang our “Biotech hats”, give thanks for the multi-baggers and retire from Biotech … right?

Well, how about …. juuuuust one more?!

Besides, we came up with another great clickbait-y title we want to put to use!

Presenting:

• “THE LAZIEST 10X-BAGGER BIOTECH PITCH EVER!”

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Happy Birthday to President Trump! We give thanks for the great show at the While House and for giving us Meme Material for a lifetime!

Congratulations are also in order for re-opening the Strait of Anthropic!

On the latter, at least that’s how the Market is treating it today, with Nasdaq leading again to the upside, in spite of the negative news over the weekend that the US government banned the export of the latest Mythos model…

…which gives me an idea for the follow-up to the “Gladiator” series, titled:

• “Gladiator III - The Strait of Anthropic”

At least we have the film set ready to go!

With all the good news over the weekend, the Meme below comes to mind:

…which reminds me of this other great film “Born on the Fourth of July”, which also deserves a sequel too that we can call “All-Time-High on the Fourth of July”, just in time for America’s Birthday…

…but the one film I really want to see a sequel of is “Dude, Where’s my Car?” .

We should call it:

• “DUDE, WHERE’S MY ROTATION?”

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As we said in our previous post, a key “tell” of whether the “Wall of Supply” can continue, is to monitor whether the IPOs “pop” on the first day and people make money off them. Well, SpaceX has made a lot of money for employees, VCs and now public market investors so that’s a tick in the box✅. It’s only been a day, so lets see how it goes.

We also review the Rotation Trade setting up with a potential Hormuz re-opening (37th time lucky?!).

Lastly, we present an interesting Event situation using our most advanced ShrubGPT model aka the “Back of the Envelope” (because I didn’t have an FT lying around to use the “Corner of the FT” 🤭).

Checking “Under the Hood” of the Market

With all the excitement of the last couple of days, the MAG7 are down 9% from the highs, since they were used as an ATM for liquidity …

…which keeps us fixated on our “Nasdaq Meme Levels”:

• The “Buffett Meme Top” at NQ 30,666

• The “Shrub Meme Bottom” at NQ 28,444

• The “OpenAI Meme Top” and the “SpaceX Meme Top” at NQ 29,666

• (Coincidentally the NQ closed on Friday at 29,662)

If you think this is a joke, it’s because it really is.

Rotation Setting Up

On a positive note, thanks to progress with Iran, which we hope results in a deal this time (37th time lucky!), we saw some “tepid” Rotation into “non-AI” trades with Europe, Copper and other Metals catching a bid and the Russell making new all-time-highs, though Semiconductors were also strong because none wants to sell what’s working. The one sad spot remains China.

Europe in particular looks pretty good. Europe outperforms the US when Crude falls (see chart), for the simple reason that Europe doesn’t have reliable energy supply (with France being the exception thanks to Nuclear). In spite of its problems, this chart makes me want to own more “Europe”, and I know it sounds disgusting but wait until you see the European football teams in the World Cup and you might get excited to.

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Though we closed our Puts at NQ 28,444 for a respectable 3.5x return I want to be clear that this isn’t the “all-clear” for risk <pun> and we are sufficiently cashed-up to sleep like a shrub at night.

Speaking of sleeping, people finally woke up to the “Wall of Supply” risk that we’ve been highlighting for a month now…but there’s a problem …

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We have a successful track record of multi-baggers in Quantum Ponzis, Spinny Ponzis, Nuclear Ponzis, Drone Ponzis and more recently in Space Ponzis.

We are now getting ready for the next “Ponzi du Jour”, which should be pretty obvious to the trained eye…

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We warned extensively as to why this drop could happen in a series of articles titled “The Wall of Supply”, where, in simple terms, the upcoming supply of Mega IPOs such as SpaceX would suck liquidity from everything and put a strain on the Market:

This dynamic got exacerbated by Google skipping the queue to raise $80bn in Equity, and now META looking to do the same, because they know that whoever is left last to raise, will be left without a “chair” in this game of “Musical Chairs” and risk oblivion..

Another bearish argument is that even “Boomer” fund managers are already all-in the AI trade, proof being that even Buffett developed FOMO at the tender age of 100 to put $10bn into Google in its quest to create a “Digital God”, though we know it’s not Buffett’s doing but the new guy’s:

We still called Nasdaq at 30,666 the “Buffett Meme Top” ™️ because it sounds poetic.

But this is not why I’m sitting on a fine Sunday to write this.

Usually market commentators come out after a correction to calm you down that, even if in the short-term the market goes lower, eventually the market rebounds into much higher levels after 1-week, 1-month , 1-year. I did my part on Twitter:

…but I’m now going to tell you the opposite:

In the short-term we might be ok, but I’m seriously worried about the long-term …

…and I’m not talking about the Markets. I’m talking about Capitalism & Freedom.

The US Government is considering taking stakes in AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI so that .. “American people can benefit”…

I know that every Wall Street monkey would sell their soul for a 2% bounce in the Nasdaq … and indeed this could be taken as positive in the short-term but …

… WHAT ON EARTH ARE WE ACTUALLY DOING HERE?!!!

Yes, I know the government already has stakes in Rare Earth Companies and Quantum Companies and Intel but …

… what are we doing taking stakes in corporations whose product can covertly influence public opinion and even “hallucinate” a new version of history?!

Before you all get triggered that I’m suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), let me make one point abundantly clear:

IT’S NOT TRUMP I’M WORRIED ABOUT, IT’S THE NEXT GUY (OR GAL)!!!

Don’t believe me? Bernie Sanders is proposing a bill to give the public 50% of AI companies (source)…

Now imagine if a socialist politician becomes President.

One can say that I’m actually suffering from Socialist Derangement Syndrome (SDS), but those who lived under Socialism know very well that it usually devolves into Authoritarianism.

Remember the level of government control we had during Covid?

The US wasn’t as bad as China…

…which is one of the reasons why China trades at 12x PE and the S&P trades at 25x, but those reasons could quickly disappear…

Here’s one: Chamath highlights the pricing gap between the best-in-class AI models to open-source AI models like Deepseek (tweet here):

He adds that “you can expect the run rate revenue growth of the frontier labs to go down meaningfully and the revenues of the open models to skyrocket.”

Gee, I wonder what that could mean for OpenAI…

… maybe it would need a bailout AFTER the US taxpayer becomes a shareholder…

…which reminds me how, back in my day, the government used to bail out companies AFTER they went bankrupt, not AFTER they reached $1 trillion valuations!

I guess we need a meme for that:

This is all such nonsense, I’m outta here.

Good luck out there!

🌳🙏

Disclaimer:

This isn’t financial advice. This is Parody. This is the equivalent of Monty Python and Spaceballs for finance, but worse: This is the trading blog of a shrub. For all you know, I could be a 15-year old paper-trading out of my parents’ basement. Don’t be Stupid. Seriously. How many times do I have to repeat this.

Today we are going to get a bit darker, as we invoke our inner Machiavelli:

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• Google (ticker: GOOG) is raising $80bn in Equity to fund its AI Capex Plans:

  • $30bn by placing shares & mandatory convertible preferred stock

  • $40bn At-The-Market (ATM) offering

  • $10bn equity placing to Berkshire Hathaway

I don’t know where to start, but let me try:

• Google made $174bn in operating cash flow as well as raised $85bn in debt over the last twelve months, and is now raising a further $80bn in EQUITY because…

• …its 2026 Capex will be $180-190bn and significantly higher in 2027…

My question to Google is:

• “HOW MUCH DOES YOUR DIGITAL GOD COST TO MAKE? WHERE DO YOU DRAW A LINE?!”

I bet you they don’t know the answer.

In fact, it would be even funnier if they asked their AI to stop burning cash and the AI just shrugged them off and kept going, just like a scene from Space Odyssey 2001:

Jokes aside, but not really, this is a fully conscious decision by Google in their pursuit to be first to reach AGI. In Sergey Brin’s own words: “We fully intend that Gemini will be the very first AGI”…

…which reminds me of another Space Odyssey 2001 quote from HAL:

• "This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it."

OK, enough of that. I have a different question:

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I really wanted to turn bullish on Software, but then I made a game called Shrub-man in a few hours and my excitement wore off. However, it’s equally dumb to completely ignore the sector, especially when some stocks can provide great meme material and solid returns…

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…because I took one for the team and went through the SpaceX financials in the newly released S-1…

…and with $19bn Revenues and a $1.75 trillion valuation, it really isn’t difficult to find a stock that’s cheaper than SpaceX at 100x Sales!

But don’t you worry, the TAM is ginormous, approaching $28.5 trillion funny money, since it’s not just the World that is Elon’s oyster, but the Universe itself!

I’m actually super-bullish the Space Economy because at the rate we are going, Earth will be destroyed and we will have to immigrate to a new planet … in which case a golden ticket on the SpaceX escape-pod will be worth anything that Elon wants … just like his SpaceX valuation…

…though I’m surprised none noticed that the TAM related to Space is already close to SpaceX’s valuation at $2 trillion (!), and the remaining $26 trillion TAM relates to … AI!

Anyway, lets brush this little detail aside and focus on our stuff…

…because while everyone will rush to buy SpaceX at 100x Sales, we’ll be cocooning in a SpaceX peer trading at a fraction of the valuation…

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